USMLE-Rx Predicts USMLE Step 1 Performance

Rationale: Medical students have few validated predictors of USMLE performance. We hypothesized that USMLE-Rx Step 1 Qmax could predict USMLE Step 1 performance.

Methods: In this prospective cohort study, 26 U.S. medical students who used USMLE-Rx for USMLE preparation completed baseline questionnaires regarding their performance on USMLE-Rx, Kaplan Qbank, and the Medical College Admissions Test (MCAT). All questionnaires were completed within one week of participants taking their USMLE examination. Participants subsequently reported their 3-digit USMLE Step 1 scores when they became available. Spearman’s rho and single linear regression modeling were used to assess associations between variables.

Results: See table below. Participants had higher than average scores for the USMLE Step 1, MCAT, and USMLE-Rx. USMLE-Rx scores strongly correlated with USMLE scores. Kaplan and MCAT scores had moderate correlation. In single linear regression modeling, USMLE-Rx, Kaplan Qbank, and MCAT scores were highly significant predictors of USMLE performance with high T-scores. USMLE-Rx scores were able to account almost 80% of the variance in USMLE scores.


Mean score (SD)

Correlation (Rho)



Variance (R2)


68.9 ±7.7












31.7 ±0.5





USMLE (3-digit)

234.7 ±19.8


Conclusions: USMLE-Rx, Kaplan, and MCAT scores appear to be significant predictors of USMLE performance. In this sample, USMLE-Rx was highly correlated with the USMLE Step 1 performance and was able to predict approximately 80% of the variation in USMLE scores.

You can also use the following formula:
USMLE-Rx(%)*2.64 + 47 = USMLE 3-digit score (+/- 20 for the 95% CI)

Categories: USMLE-Rx

1 reply »

  1. what are you waiting for? Lets go ahead and itiitane the MOST important series of events in your life. Get the personal statement polished, your pre-professional liason in your school to begin sending out transcripts. They are now electronic in most states and even DO schools and they mass send. Get that handled, then bucket down for the MCAT results, hopefully over the 25minimum and pray you get those interviews. The best advice I can give you is to apply broadly and maybe even consider the schools in the east because I know California is just an insane applicant pool. Get a new suit and practice interviewing questions with friends, doctors, and parents. And lastly, fight, show them what a fighter you are, what struggles you’ve gone through. they want a toughened warrior.


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